KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

23%

20%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.8¢Risks 29.80u

EPSNO 70.2¢Risks 70.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.20u · EPS −70.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:04+00:00	8.5%	50.0%	14.3%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	8.5%	50.0%	14.3%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	8.5%	50.0%	14.3%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	8.5%	50.0%	14.3%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	8.5%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	8.5%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	8.5%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	8.5%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	6.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	21.2%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	15.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	12.6%	23.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	12.6%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	26.1%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	24.9%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	76.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	22.5%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	22.5%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	22.5%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	22.5%	35.7%	13.5%	36.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T10:34:13+00:00	22.5%	35.7%	13.5%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	22.5%	8.5%	7.8%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	22.5%	8.5%	7.8%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	22.5%	8.5%	7.8%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	29.2%	8.5%	7.8%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	30.2%	8.6%	8.2%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:40+00:00	30.2%	7.8%	8.2%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	30.2%	7.8%	8.2%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	30.2%	7.8%	8.2%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	30.2%	7.8%	9.5%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	30.2%	7.8%	9.5%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	30.2%	7.8%	9.5%	29.2%	45.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	19.7%	7.8%	9.5%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	19.7%	7.8%	9.5%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	19.7%	7.8%	9.5%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	19.7%	7.8%	9.5%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	19.7%	7.8%	9.5%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	9.2%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	9.2%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	9.2%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	9.2%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	9.2%	23.3%	51.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	19.7%	7.9%	9.2%	23.3%	51.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	85.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	85.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	80.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	80.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	79.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	81.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗