KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

23%

20%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.8¢Risks 29.80u

EPSNO 70.2¢Risks 70.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.20u · EPS −70.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	24.9%	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.7%	5.4%	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	68.3%	45.1%	0.1%	—	31.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	21.0%	37.1%	10.3%	—	20.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	26.4%	6.5%	16.4%	—	11.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	18.9%	10.0%	10.0%	—	17.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	24.5%	9.0%	10.4%	—	19.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	3.8%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	20.8%	10.5%	13.1%	—	11.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	23.5%	15.5%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	25.9%	19.6%	7.9%	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	20.3%	22.4%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	22.5%	19.0%	13.1%	—	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	21.1%	12.4%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.5%	5.2%	6.4%	0.0%	7.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	22.8%	10.1%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	17.6%	9.4%	9.9%	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	16.8%	13.5%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	15.3%	10.5%	10.0%	0.0%	6.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	19.1%	8.2%	11.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	17.4%	8.0%	6.3%	4.6%	8.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	19.1%	11.5%	4.9%	—	4.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	16.5%	12.7%	5.3%	2.0%	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	18.2%	8.6%	6.2%	—	4.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	19.1%	8.9%	5.9%	4.0%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	8.0%	5.6%	—	1.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	85.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	85.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	80.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	80.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	79.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	81.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗