WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSAT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
8%
AIFS
6%
ICON
3%
EPS
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 4.7¢Risks 1.16u
VS
WN2NO 95.3¢Risks 23.84u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.84u · WN2 −23.84u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 47.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:005.2%————7.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:008.3%————8.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:008.3%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:003.2%————8.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0025.2%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.8%————6.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:005.3%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0016.9%————7.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:009.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.7%————6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.8%————11.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:002.7%————20.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:005.6%————22.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0019.7%————22.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0013.9%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0016.6%————24.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:007.6%—4.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:004.4%————18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.9%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0016.4%—12.5%——23.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%—15.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.4%—11.0%——14.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.9%—33.3%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%1.7%——15.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.2%—33.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.0%47.9%25.7%0.0%—15.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:002.5%—16.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:002.3%8.7%18.9%3.5%—8.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.5%—0.5%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:001.4%11.4%1.8%6.0%—3.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:001.4%—6.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.5%6.9%3.0%3.0%—6.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.8%—7.9%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.1%9.3%2.5%3.0%—6.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.7%0.8%13.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.2%7.0%2.8%3.8%—3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:001.1%8.1%4.5%——3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:001.4%9.0%6.1%1.8%—4.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:001.3%6.1%7.0%——3.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.3%6.8%5.4%3.2%—3.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.8%6.0%2.8%——2.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.3%3.4%0.8%1.1%0.0%1.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.3%6.2%1.9%——1.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.3%4.0%1.6%1.7%—2.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%3.5%2.6%0.0%—1.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.9%1.7%1.5%0.0%0.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.1%3.7%1.1%1.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%3.0%0.9%0.7%0.4%1.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%3.2%1.5%0.4%—0.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%2.4%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%2.5%0.8%0.5%—0.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%2.5%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.5%0.3%—0.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast10%84.0°F3.4°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS HRES8%82.7°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%82.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend4%83.0°F3.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON3%81.8°F3.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%82.7°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%81.1°F3.4°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗