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KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
56%
HRES
50%
EPS
44%
AIFS
36%
WN2
25%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 40.4¢Risks 40.35u
VS
WN2NO 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.65u · WN2 −59.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00AIFS Single: 36.2% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 26.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 48.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 59.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:19+00:0040.5%42.1%26.0%48.4%59.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0040.5%42.1%34.4%48.4%59.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0040.5%42.1%34.4%48.4%59.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0040.5%42.1%34.4%48.4%59.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:0042.6%42.1%34.4%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0042.6%42.1%34.4%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0042.6%42.1%34.4%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0042.6%42.1%34.4%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0042.6%42.1%34.4%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:0042.6%43.5%24.7%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:0042.6%43.5%24.7%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0042.6%43.5%24.7%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:0036.3%43.5%24.7%50.0%56.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0036.2%43.5%24.7%50.0%56.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend75%87.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON56%86.1°F4.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast55%86.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES50%85.5°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%85.1°F2.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single36%84.0°F4.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%83.2°F3.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗