KSAT / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

50%

44%

36%

25%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.4¢Risks 40.35u

WN2NO 59.7¢Risks 59.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.65u · WN2 −59.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	37.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	62.4%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	51.3%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	0.0%	26.5%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	39.6%	25.7%	0.4%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	62.9%	40.6%	35.7%	—	42.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	55.3%	30.3%	28.3%	—	41.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	57.1%	29.5%	34.5%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	25.6%	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	56.6%	30.0%	30.0%	—	40.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	29.6%	32.6%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	48.2%	32.2%	26.2%	—	37.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	40.2%	43.7%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	45.4%	43.6%	22.3%	—	32.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	56.6%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	49.0%	43.2%	26.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	41.1%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	44.9%	42.8%	21.9%	—	30.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	53.2%	46.8%	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	55.5%	48.9%	25.5%	14.3%	35.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	29.6%	0.0%	—	30.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	56%	86.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	85.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	85.1°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	84.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗