KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

34%

26%

22%

10%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

WN2NO 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.90u · WN2 −73.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:50+00:00	25.8%	53.0%	22.1%	42.6%	11.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	26.0%	53.0%	22.2%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	22.2%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	22.2%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	22.2%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	26.0%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	11.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	69.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	69.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	69.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	22.8%	42.6%	69.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	22.8%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	28.3%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	29.5%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	29.5%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	29.5%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	29.5%	51.5%	26.5%	40.8%	69.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	28.6%	39.3%	14.8%	37.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	28.6%	28.6%	14.8%	37.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	28.6%	28.6%	14.8%	37.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	28.6%	28.6%	17.8%	37.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	28.6%	28.6%	17.8%	37.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	28.6%	28.6%	17.8%	37.8%	65.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	17.8%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	17.8%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	17.8%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	17.8%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	17.8%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	26.6%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	16.5%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	24.0%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	24.0%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	27.9%	28.6%	24.0%	36.5%	60.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	25.0%	28.6%	24.0%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	25.0%	28.6%	24.0%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	25.0%	28.6%	24.0%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	25.0%	28.6%	24.0%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	25.0%	28.6%	24.0%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	25.0%	27.1%	11.4%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	25.0%	27.1%	11.4%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	25.0%	27.1%	11.4%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	21.6%	27.1%	11.4%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	21.6%	27.1%	11.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	11.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	11.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	11.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	42.1%	54.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	21.6%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	22.2%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	22.2%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	22.2%	25.7%	10.3%	34.5%	41.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	84.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	85.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	81.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗