KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

42%

34%

26%

22%

10%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 26.1¢Risks 26.10u

WN2NO 73.9¢Risks 73.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +73.90u · WN2 −73.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	34.0%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.2%	16.7%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	54.2%	42.3%	1.7%	—	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	44.9%	31.7%	32.3%	—	37.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	47.7%	28.9%	25.8%	—	30.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	27.2%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	48.4%	28.8%	29.5%	—	31.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	41.7%	32.2%	36.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	26.0%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	40.5%	31.4%	36.3%	—	27.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	30.2%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	26.6%	30.6%	33.0%	—	20.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	31.8%	28.4%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	36.6%	32.1%	32.1%	5.9%	24.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	17.7%	—	—	15.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	84.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	85.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	83.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	81.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗