KSAT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.7¢Risks 4.87u

WN2NO 90.2¢Risks 45.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.12u · WN2 −45.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	19.7%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	14.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	33.6%	23.5%	0.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	24.9%	15.2%	15.6%	—	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	26.4%	12.9%	11.0%	—	14.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	26.1%	12.3%	12.7%	—	14.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	17.9%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	20.1%	13.8%	16.8%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	9.9%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	18.4%	12.7%	15.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.6%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	9.4%	11.5%	12.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	11.8%	10.0%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	14.2%	11.6%	11.6%	1.1%	7.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	3.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	18%	85.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	84.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	83.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	3%	84.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	82.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261023-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗