KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

40%

29%

29%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

WN2NO 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.30u · WN2 −59.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	28.3%	34.5%	19.6%	50.0%	48.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	28.3%	26.4%	19.6%	50.0%	48.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	28.3%	26.4%	19.6%	50.0%	48.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	28.3%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	48.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	28.3%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	48.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	28.3%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	48.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.2%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	20.8%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	24.0%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	24.0%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	29.6%	26.4%	24.0%	50.0%	61.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	31.4%	26.4%	24.0%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	31.4%	26.4%	24.0%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	31.4%	26.4%	24.0%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	31.4%	26.4%	24.0%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	31.4%	26.4%	24.0%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	31.4%	31.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	31.4%	31.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	31.4%	31.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	26.6%	31.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	26.5%	31.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	26.5%	28.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	26.5%	28.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	26.5%	28.6%	21.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	26.5%	28.6%	19.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	26.5%	28.6%	19.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	26.5%	28.6%	19.1%	47.2%	55.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	19.1%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	19.1%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	19.1%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	19.1%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	19.1%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	20.4%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	20.4%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	29.9%	28.6%	20.4%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	29.2%	28.6%	20.4%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	29.2%	28.6%	20.4%	39.8%	61.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	29.2%	28.6%	20.4%	39.8%	61.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	88.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	85.2°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	83.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗