KSAT / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

40%

29%

29%

20%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.7¢Risks 40.70u

WN2NO 59.3¢Risks 59.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.30u · WN2 −59.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	23.6%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	0.0%	47.3%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	33.0%	36.9%	0.4%	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	23.7%	40.6%	36.4%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	37.2%	29.6%	38.0%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	35.9%	34.5%	30.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	41.7%	34.5%	33.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	6.7%	44.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	38.8%	46.5%	45.6%	24.8%	28.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	27.9%	—	—	21.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	61%	88.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	29%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	85.2°F	2.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	83.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261024-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗