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KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
ICON
78%
AIFS
58%
HRES
57%
WN2
53%
Consensus
70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 71.2¢Risks 71.15u
VS
WN2NO 28.8¢Risks 28.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.85u · WN2 −28.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 55.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00AIFS Single: 58.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 63.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00IFS HRES: 56.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 80.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 77.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:22+00:0055.9%87.1%55.1%63.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0055.9%87.1%55.1%63.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0055.9%87.1%57.6%63.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0055.9%87.1%57.6%63.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0055.9%87.1%57.6%63.1%80.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0058.0%87.1%57.6%63.1%77.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0058.0%87.1%57.6%63.1%77.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0058.0%87.1%57.6%63.1%77.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0058.0%87.1%57.6%63.1%77.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0058.0%89.4%52.9%56.9%77.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0058.0%89.4%52.9%56.9%77.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0058.0%89.4%52.9%56.9%77.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0058.0%89.4%52.9%56.9%77.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:0058.0%89.4%52.9%56.9%78.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:0058.0%89.4%52.9%56.9%78.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%84.5°F2.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON78%86.2°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single58%82.5°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%82.5°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%82.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%82.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%81.8°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗