KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

58%

57%

53%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

WN2NO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +28.45u · WN2 −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	42.2%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	55.8%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	1.2%	34.8%	—	—	50.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	33.6%	45.1%	4.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	55.1%	33.7%	26.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	68.4%	46.2%	44.7%	—	43.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	65.5%	57.9%	30.9%	40.5%	42.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	36.4%	—	—	43.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	84.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	78%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	82.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	82.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗