KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

EPSNO 84.4¢Risks 84.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.35u · EPS −84.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:42+00:00	11.5%	8.7%	8.8%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	11.5%	8.7%	8.8%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	11.5%	8.7%	8.8%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	11.5%	8.7%	8.8%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	7.1%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	7.1%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:51+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	7.1%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	11.5%	8.6%	7.1%	18.4%	4.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	14.4%	8.6%	7.1%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	14.4%	8.6%	7.1%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	14.4%	5.9%	7.1%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	14.4%	5.9%	7.1%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	14.4%	5.9%	8.5%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	14.4%	5.9%	8.5%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	14.4%	5.9%	8.5%	18.4%	4.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	12.2%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	8.5%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	9.2%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	9.2%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	13.3%	5.9%	9.2%	16.4%	28.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00	11.5%	5.9%	9.2%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	11.5%	5.9%	9.2%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	11.5%	5.9%	9.2%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	11.5%	5.9%	9.2%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	11.5%	5.9%	9.2%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:10+00:00	11.5%	5.1%	5.9%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	11.5%	5.1%	5.9%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	11.5%	5.1%	5.9%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	13.4%	5.1%	5.9%	17.8%	30.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	13.3%	5.1%	5.9%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	13.3%	4.5%	5.9%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	13.3%	4.5%	5.9%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	13.3%	4.5%	5.9%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	13.3%	4.5%	6.2%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	13.3%	4.5%	6.2%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:12+00:00	13.3%	4.5%	6.2%	17.7%	30.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	6.2%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	6.2%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	6.2%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	6.2%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	6.2%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:03+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	11.8%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	5.7%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	9.1%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	39.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	7.8%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	29.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	7.8%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	29.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	7.8%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	29.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	7.8%	4.5%	6.4%	18.9%	29.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.1%	11.3%	29.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.1%	11.3%	29.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.1%	11.3%	29.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.1%	11.3%	29.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	29%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	82.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	82.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗