KSAT / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.7¢Risks 15.65u

EPSNO 84.4¢Risks 84.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +84.35u · EPS −84.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	8.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	7.9%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	12.3%	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.0%	4.0%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	3.3%	6.3%	0.1%	—	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	9.0%	2.9%	1.8%	—	7.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	14.6%	5.2%	4.8%	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	11.5%	8.1%	1.8%	3.3%	3.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	3.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	29%	86.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	82.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	82.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	84.5°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261025-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in San Antonio · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗