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KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
73%
AIFS
64%
EPS
48%
WN2
47%
HRES
45%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 58.7¢Risks 58.65u
VS
HRESNO 41.3¢Risks 41.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +41.35u · HRES −41.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 47.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 44.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 39.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 72.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:23+00:0059.0%62.6%54.7%64.5%39.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0059.0%62.6%54.7%64.5%39.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0059.0%62.6%54.7%64.5%39.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0059.0%62.6%54.7%64.5%39.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0059.0%62.6%54.7%64.5%39.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0064.4%62.6%54.7%64.5%72.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0064.4%62.6%54.7%64.5%72.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0064.4%62.6%54.7%64.5%72.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0064.4%62.6%54.7%64.5%72.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:04+00:0064.4%47.5%47.4%44.6%72.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0064.4%47.5%47.4%44.6%72.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0064.4%47.5%47.4%44.6%72.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0064.4%47.5%47.4%44.6%72.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON73%85.8°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single64%83.5°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%82.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%81.3°F3.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 247%81.2°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend46%81.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES45%80.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗