KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

63%

50%

49%

45%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 58.7¢Risks 58.65u

HRESNO 41.3¢Risks 41.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +41.35u · HRES −41.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	46.4%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	13.2%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	1.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	1.6%	13.2%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	10.2%	14.9%	2.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	55.1%	70.9%	52.9%	18.9%	37.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	21.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	73%	85.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	83.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	82.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	81.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	81.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	81.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	80.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗