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KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
36%
WN2
34%
EPS
28%
HRES
22%
ICON
13%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 24.6¢Risks 24.55u
VS
ICONNO 75.4¢Risks 75.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.45u · ICON −75.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0010-19 07:3310-19 09:0410-19 10:35
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:34+00:0035.7%28.5%33.7%22.4%13.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0035.7%28.5%33.7%22.4%13.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0035.7%28.5%33.7%22.4%13.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0035.7%28.5%33.7%22.4%13.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0035.7%28.5%33.7%22.4%13.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%85.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single36%82.4°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%82.2°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%82.8°F3.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%79.6°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON13%73.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗