KSAT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Antonio, TXHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

34%

28%

22%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.6¢Risks 24.55u

ICONNO 75.4¢Risks 75.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.45u · ICON −75.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	5.6%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.4%	5.2%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	3.6%	5.8%	0.7%	—	20.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	33.7%	50.0%	31.7%	7.6%	19.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	15.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	85.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	82.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	82.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	82.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	79.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	73.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KSAT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSAT-20261026-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Antonio high ≥ 85°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗