KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 03:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

92%

91%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.1¢Risks 23.78u

AIFSNO 4.9¢Risks 1.22u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.22u · AIFS −1.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:12:09+00:00	92.6%	82.7%	99.1%	96.1%	93.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	92.6%	82.7%	99.1%	96.1%	93.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	92.6%	82.7%	99.1%	96.1%	93.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	92.6%	82.7%	98.7%	96.1%	93.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	92.6%	82.7%	98.7%	96.1%	93.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	92.6%	82.7%	98.7%	96.1%	93.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	91.7%	82.7%	98.7%	94.8%	97.1%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	91.7%	82.7%	98.7%	94.8%	97.1%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	91.7%	82.7%	98.7%	94.8%	97.1%
2026-10-11T21:59:02+00:00	91.7%	82.7%	98.7%	94.8%	97.1%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	91.7%	82.7%	98.7%	94.8%	97.1%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	91.7%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	91.7%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	91.7%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:58+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.4%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.0%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.0%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	91.1%	82.8%	98.0%	94.8%	97.0%
2026-10-12T07:49:00+00:00	91.8%	82.8%	98.0%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	91.8%	82.8%	98.0%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	91.8%	82.8%	98.0%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	91.8%	82.8%	98.0%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	91.8%	82.8%	98.0%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	91.8%	82.8%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	91.8%	90.2%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	91.8%	90.2%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	90.0%	90.2%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	90.0%	90.2%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	90.0%	90.2%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	90.0%	90.2%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	90.0%	90.5%	98.7%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	90.0%	90.5%	98.3%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	90.0%	90.5%	98.3%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	90.0%	90.5%	98.3%	97.4%	97.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	88.8%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T04:16:25+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.6%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	89.6%	90.5%	98.3%	97.0%	98.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	91.1%	92.1%	99.1%	98.9%	98.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	91.1%	92.1%	99.1%	98.9%	98.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:06+00:00	91.1%	92.1%	99.1%	98.9%	98.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	99%	76.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
ICON	98%	74.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	95%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0023
IFS Ensemble	92%	73.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0062
National Blend	92%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0062
AIFS Single	91%	72.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0079

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗