KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 03:00 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

98%

92%

91%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.1¢Risks 23.78u

AIFSNO 4.9¢Risks 1.22u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.22u · AIFS −1.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	26.4%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	46.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	0.2%	44.6%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	62.4%	58.4%	27.5%	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	90.4%	73.4%	90.0%	—	73.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	90.7%	77.2%	84.0%	—	80.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	0.5%	88.9%	91.6%	—	91.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	—	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	96.2%	93.7%	95.7%	—	91.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	8.8%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.1%	95.9%	89.5%	96.2%	—	93.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	96.9%	92.2%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	98.0%	92.7%	97.0%	—	93.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	98.2%	94.1%	—	—	95.8%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	98.7%	93.8%	98.0%	—	98.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	98.7%	97.0%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	97.7%	97.4%	98.0%	—	97.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	97.7%	99.0%	—	—	98.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	99.0%	99.3%	98.3%	—	99.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	98.7%	99.1%	0.9%	—	99.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	99.5%	99.2%	97.3%	89.5%	99.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	99.4%	99.4%	96.9%	—	99.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	98.3%	99.7%	96.3%	82.6%	99.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	98.4%	99.7%	96.5%	—	99.6%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	99.1%	99.3%	97.0%	85.9%	99.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	98.6%	99.6%	94.6%	—	99.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	99.4%	99.7%	96.5%	79.8%	99.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	99.8%	99.9%	98.7%	—	99.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	81.9%	99.5%	100.0%	96.3%	88.3%	99.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	98.9%	100.0%	96.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
IFS HRES	99%	76.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001
ICON	98%	74.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	95%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.0023
IFS Ensemble	92%	73.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0062
National Blend	92%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.0062
AIFS Single	91%	72.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0079

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Seattle runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗