KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

91%

89%

78%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.3¢Risks 44.15u

EPSNO 11.7¢Risks 5.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.85u · EPS −5.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T04:17:52+00:00	83.8%	36.7%	76.8%	60.0%	70.2%
2026-10-10T05:03:11+00:00	83.8%	36.7%	76.8%	60.0%	70.2%
2026-10-10T05:48:18+00:00	83.8%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	70.2%
2026-10-10T06:33:24+00:00	83.8%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	70.2%
2026-10-10T07:18:28+00:00	83.8%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	70.2%
2026-10-10T08:03:37+00:00	92.5%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T08:48:42+00:00	92.5%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T09:33:47+00:00	92.5%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T10:19:01+00:00	92.5%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T11:04:11+00:00	92.5%	36.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T11:49:17+00:00	92.5%	51.3%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T12:34:22+00:00	92.5%	51.3%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T13:19:28+00:00	92.5%	51.3%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T14:05:00+00:00	90.4%	51.3%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T14:54:11+00:00	90.4%	51.3%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:34+00:00	90.4%	48.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:40+00:00	90.4%	48.7%	91.0%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:48+00:00	90.4%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T17:55:14+00:00	90.4%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:24+00:00	90.4%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:37+00:00	90.4%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.7%
2026-10-10T20:10:47+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.3%
2026-10-10T20:56:24+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.3%
2026-10-10T21:41:31+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.5%	60.0%	91.3%
2026-10-10T22:28:02+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.5%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-10T23:13:34+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-10T23:58:41+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	86.0%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T01:29:04+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T03:45:23+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T04:30:54+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	95.7%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T05:16:08+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	96.8%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T06:01:18+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	96.8%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T06:46:28+00:00	90.8%	48.7%	96.8%	94.8%	91.3%
2026-10-11T07:32:38+00:00	87.0%	48.7%	96.8%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	87.0%	48.7%	96.8%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	87.0%	48.7%	96.8%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	87.0%	48.7%	96.8%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T10:34:18+00:00	87.0%	48.7%	96.8%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00	87.0%	78.7%	98.2%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	87.0%	78.7%	98.2%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	87.0%	78.7%	98.2%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T13:35:56+00:00	89.4%	78.7%	98.2%	94.5%	91.3%
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	89.3%	78.4%	98.2%	94.5%	91.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	76.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	94%	76.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0030
ICON	91%	76.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0079
AIFS Single	89%	73.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0114
IFS Ensemble	78%	72.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0467
National Blend	68%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗