KSEA / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

94%

91%

89%

78%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 88.3¢Risks 44.15u

EPSNO 11.7¢Risks 5.85u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +5.85u · EPS −5.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	36.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	21.6%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	18.5%	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	0.1%	38.0%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	55.6%	51.4%	21.9%	—	47.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	86.9%	67.0%	86.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	87.1%	71.1%	78.9%	—	74.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	0.3%	84.6%	88.1%	—	87.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	94.2%	90.6%	93.4%	—	87.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	5.9%	89.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	93.5%	84.9%	94.1%	—	89.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	95.0%	88.4%	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	96.6%	89.0%	95.0%	—	90.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	96.8%	90.8%	—	—	93.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	97.6%	90.2%	96.5%	—	96.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	97.6%	94.8%	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	95.8%	95.3%	96.5%	—	96.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	95.8%	98.1%	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	98.0%	98.6%	96.7%	—	98.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	97.4%	98.2%	0.4%	—	98.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	99.0%	98.2%	94.9%	83.2%	98.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	98.7%	98.7%	94.2%	—	98.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	96.5%	99.3%	92.9%	73.4%	98.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	96.5%	99.3%	93.2%	—	98.9%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	97.8%	98.3%	93.9%	77.0%	98.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	96.8%	99.0%	89.6%	—	99.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	98.4%	99.1%	92.7%	68.2%	99.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	99.2%	99.8%	96.8%	—	99.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	98.5%	100.0%	91.7%	78.6%	99.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	96.9%	100.0%	92.7%	—	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	76.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0003
IFS HRES	94%	76.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0030
ICON	91%	76.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-10 12:00	0.0079
AIFS Single	89%	73.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.0114
IFS Ensemble	78%	72.3°F	6.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0467
National Blend	68%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.1056
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-11 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 10 · 04:17 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗