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KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
10%
ICON
7%
AIFS
3%
WN2
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.6¢Risks 1.41u
VS
EPSNO 94.3¢Risks 23.59u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.59u · EPS −23.59u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS HRES: 10.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00ICON: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:0010-15 11:3910-15 12:2410-15 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:003.3%0.8%1.5%10.5%6.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:003.3%0.8%1.5%10.5%6.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:003.3%0.8%1.5%10.5%6.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES10%58.1°F4.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON7%58.4°F4.0°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend5%58.0°F3.3°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast5%59.0°F3.9°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending
AIFS Single3%60.4°F4.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%59.8°F3.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%63.0°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗