KSEA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≤ 52°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 5.6¢Risks 1.41u

EPSNO 94.3¢Risks 23.59u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.59u · EPS −23.59u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	36.9%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	15.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	15.3%	6.3%	25.2%	—	12.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	18.4%	6.2%	3.9%	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	15.1%	5.8%	6.5%	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	8.7%	2.9%	8.7%	—	9.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	7.4%	9.7%	3.3%	—	11.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	39.8%	14.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	15.6%	8.6%	13.1%	—	13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	23.5%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	10.2%	8.3%	6.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	8.4%	17.7%	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.8%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	15.8%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	9.8%	4.0%	1.8%	—	10.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.6%	14.4%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	13.1%	4.5%	1.9%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	11.8%	7.5%	34.6%	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	8.5%	2.4%	1.4%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	6.6%	1.0%	0.9%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	3.3%	1.3%	1.3%	5.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	1.3%	0.6%	0.9%	—	4.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	1.1%	1.3%	0.6%	3.0%	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	1.0%	0.5%	0.4%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.5%	1.5%	3.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	0.5%	0.8%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.6%	1.6%	3.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	1.9%	0.4%	2.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	10%	58.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	7%	58.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	58.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	59.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	59.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 52°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-LE52
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗