KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

66%

66%

64%

51%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.1¢Risks 65.05u

AIFSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.95u · AIFS −34.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:40+00:00	47.1%	79.3%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	47.1%	80.0%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:10+00:00	57.8%	80.0%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	57.8%	80.0%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:46+00:00	57.8%	80.0%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	57.8%	79.4%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	57.8%	79.4%	61.9%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	57.8%	79.4%	65.6%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	57.8%	79.4%	65.6%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	57.8%	79.4%	65.6%	45.0%	50.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	65.6%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	65.6%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	65.6%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	65.6%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	48.6%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	50.7%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	50.7%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	50.7%	79.4%	64.1%	65.9%	65.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	61.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	60.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	61.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	59.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	57.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 58°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗