KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

66%

66%

64%

51%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.1¢Risks 65.05u

AIFSNO 34.9¢Risks 34.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.95u · AIFS −34.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	51.8%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	48.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	48.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	39.1%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	23.3%	46.0%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	46.5%	34.9%	25.7%	—	50.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	37.1%	61.6%	64.3%	—	47.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	33.0%	12.5%	45.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	55.6%	72.6%	54.8%	—	46.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	66.2%	43.4%	44.2%	—	55.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	18.4%	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.8%	20.8%	72.4%	76.6%	—	50.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	21.5%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.2%	11.9%	80.4%	79.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	37.0%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	43.2%	69.6%	79.0%	—	47.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	34.4%	68.3%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	45.9%	68.8%	80.3%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	73.0%	69.3%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	67.9%	66.9%	79.4%	0.2%	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	72.4%	72.4%	6.3%	—	52.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	61.5%	81.0%	89.0%	65.9%	62.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	78.4%	64.1%	91.3%	—	68.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	71.3%	66.9%	90.5%	—	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	83.4%	75.2%	90.2%	—	62.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	80.0%	84.3%	90.5%	87.4%	77.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	81.8%	85.3%	93.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.8%	87.0%	96.0%	94.9%	89.8%	91.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	86.4%	98.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	61.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	60.1°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	61.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	59.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	57.6°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 58°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗