WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
85%
HRES
84%
AIFS
75%
EPS
59%
ICON
41%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 63.0¢Risks 63.00u
VS
ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.00u · ICON −37.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.4% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 76.7% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00ICON: 33.6% · 2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 41.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0010-18 15:4110-18 23:1310-19 06:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:0074.5%59.4%86.4%76.7%33.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:0074.5%59.4%86.4%76.7%33.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%76.7%33.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%76.7%33.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%76.7%33.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%76.7%33.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:0074.5%59.4%80.5%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:0074.5%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:0074.5%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:0074.5%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:0075.3%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:0075.3%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:0075.3%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:0075.3%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:0075.3%59.4%82.3%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:0075.3%59.4%84.9%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0075.3%59.4%84.9%84.1%41.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0075.3%59.4%84.9%84.1%41.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 285%62.5°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES84%63.2°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single75%62.2°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
National Blend67%60.0°F1.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%60.6°F4.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%60.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON41%58.7°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗