KSEA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

75%

59%

41%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.0¢Risks 63.00u

ICONNO 37.0¢Risks 37.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.00u · ICON −37.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	36.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	27.3%	—	—	28.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	14.3%	33.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	33.0%	23.0%	15.8%	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	24.3%	47.1%	50.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	20.5%	6.3%	30.9%	—	29.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	39.7%	57.9%	39.0%	—	30.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	50.0%	27.9%	28.6%	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	9.2%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	10.5%	56.1%	61.3%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	10.8%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	5.0%	65.3%	64.4%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	21.0%	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	25.5%	51.0%	62.4%	—	28.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	18.3%	49.0%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	26.8%	49.0%	63.1%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	53.2%	48.9%	—	—	21.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	46.7%	45.6%	60.8%	0.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	51.1%	51.1%	1.8%	—	30.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	38.5%	61.5%	74.0%	43.0%	39.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	57.2%	40.5%	77.5%	—	45.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	47.5%	42.6%	75.4%	—	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	62.7%	51.3%	74.1%	—	37.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	56.7%	63.2%	73.9%	68.1%	52.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	58.3%	63.7%	78.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	65.5%	84.6%	81.8%	70.7%	74.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	63.3%	92.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	62.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	60.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	60.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	41%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗