KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

82%

78%

76%

69%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.1¢Risks 38.57u

ICONNO 22.9¢Risks 11.43u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +11.43u · ICON −11.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00	81.3%	56.2%	66.6%	66.5%	69.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	81.3%	56.2%	68.1%	66.5%	69.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	81.3%	56.2%	68.1%	66.5%	69.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	81.3%	56.2%	68.1%	66.5%	69.5%
2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00	68.5%	56.2%	68.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	68.5%	56.2%	68.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	68.5%	56.2%	68.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	68.5%	56.2%	68.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	68.5%	56.2%	68.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:38+00:00	68.5%	56.2%	65.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	68.5%	68.0%	65.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	68.5%	68.0%	65.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	78.4%	68.0%	65.1%	72.8%	60.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	78.4%	68.0%	65.1%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	65.1%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	65.1%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	69.5%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	69.5%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	69.5%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	69.5%	72.8%	60.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	69.5%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	69.5%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	69.5%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	69.5%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	77.8%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	70.4%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	74.7%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	56.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	78.4%	68.8%	66.9%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	78.4%	63.8%	65.7%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	78.4%	63.8%	65.7%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	78.4%	63.8%	65.7%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	78.4%	63.8%	65.7%	53.4%	71.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	80.3%	63.8%	65.7%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	65.7%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	65.7%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	65.7%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	71.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	55.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	55.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	55.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	68.6%	47.6%	55.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	68.6%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	80.9%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	70.5%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	68.6%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	68.6%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	80.3%	64.7%	68.6%	57.9%	55.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	82.5%	64.7%	68.6%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	82.5%	64.7%	68.6%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	82.5%	64.7%	68.6%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	82.5%	64.7%	68.6%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	82.5%	64.7%	68.6%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	82.5%	66.4%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	82.5%	66.4%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	82.5%	66.4%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	81.3%	66.4%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	81.3%	66.1%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	81.3%	68.9%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	81.3%	68.9%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	81.3%	68.9%	76.2%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	81.3%	68.9%	77.1%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	81.3%	68.9%	77.1%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	81.3%	68.9%	77.1%	67.3%	76.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	77.1%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	77.1%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	77.1%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	77.1%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	77.1%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	79.3%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:44+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	79.7%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	81.3%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	81.3%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	81.3%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	80.6%	68.9%	81.3%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	83.2%	68.9%	81.3%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	83.2%	68.9%	81.3%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	83.2%	68.9%	81.3%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	83.2%	68.9%	81.3%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	83.2%	68.9%	81.3%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	83.2%	76.6%	81.7%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	83.2%	76.6%	81.7%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	83.2%	76.6%	81.7%	78.2%	69.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	85.0%	75.9%	81.7%	78.2%	69.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	85.0%	75.9%	81.7%	78.2%	69.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	92%	60.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	62.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	61.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	61.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	60.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗