KSEA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

82%

78%

76%

69%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 77.1¢Risks 38.57u

ICONNO 22.9¢Risks 11.43u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +11.43u · ICON −11.43u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	23.1%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	6.6%	45.3%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	50.0%	25.7%	9.3%	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	49.3%	76.8%	47.1%	—	40.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	50.0%	53.0%	35.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	41.3%	50.0%	69.2%	—	48.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.3%	62.3%	28.6%	—	45.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	5.4%	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	58.7%	57.8%	60.4%	—	37.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	40.2%	55.4%	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	40.9%	29.7%	60.9%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	70.8%	38.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	70.4%	51.9%	61.5%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	58.9%	54.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	62.2%	56.1%	67.0%	0.1%	45.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	73.0%	50.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	71.8%	61.8%	72.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	79.4%	69.5%	9.2%	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	80.1%	74.0%	80.1%	0.1%	62.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	81.7%	78.4%	84.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	83.4%	81.8%	81.8%	70.2%	74.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	82.6%	80.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	92%	60.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	62.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	61.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	61.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	61.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	60.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗