KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

73%

71%

65%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 36.92u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 13.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.08u · EPS −13.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:38+00:00	80.3%	68.3%	76.5%	68.2%	31.8%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	80.3%	66.0%	72.7%	68.2%	31.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	80.3%	66.0%	72.7%	68.2%	31.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	80.3%	66.0%	72.7%	68.2%	31.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	79.9%	66.0%	72.7%	68.2%	31.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	79.9%	66.0%	72.5%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	79.9%	65.0%	72.5%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	79.9%	65.0%	72.5%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	79.9%	65.0%	72.5%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	79.9%	65.0%	73.2%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	79.9%	65.0%	73.2%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	79.9%	65.0%	73.2%	68.2%	32.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	73.2%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	73.2%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	73.2%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	73.2%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	73.2%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	84.0%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	82.7%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	82.7%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	82.7%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00	82.7%	65.0%	79.3%	72.6%	70.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	62.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	61.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	61.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	62.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	59.5°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	58.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 58°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗