KSEA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 58°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

79%

73%

71%

65%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 73.8¢Risks 36.92u

EPSNO 26.2¢Risks 13.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +13.08u · EPS −13.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	38.4%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	13.8%	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	58.3%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	62.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	19.8%	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	78.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	5.9%	83.3%	—	61.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	79.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	55.6%	74.8%	11.5%	72.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	66.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	50.7%	77.4%	81.6%	67.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	85.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	44.7%	87.1%	48.5%	61.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	86.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	82.6%	77.0%	71.9%	64.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	78.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	72.1%	63.1%	78.1%	62.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	36.6%	77.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	91.7%	91.3%	83.9%	81.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	88.8%	92.8%	—	82.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	93.4%	94.7%	90.6%	85.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	93.6%	94.1%	—	88.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.3%	96.6%	96.2%	94.1%	90.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.6%	98.2%	98.5%	—	90.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	97.2%	98.2%	95.6%	93.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	97.7%	99.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	98.0%	99.5%	95.3%	95.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	96.9%	99.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	62.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	79%	61.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	61.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	62.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	59.5°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	58.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 58°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗