KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

71%

69%

62%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.8¢Risks 34.88u

HRESNO 30.2¢Risks 15.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.12u · HRES −15.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	64.3%	77.3%	70.9%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	64.3%	77.9%	70.9%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	64.3%	77.9%	70.9%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	64.3%	77.9%	70.9%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	64.3%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	64.3%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	64.3%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	46.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:16+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	71.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	71.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	71.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	76.0%	65.1%	71.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	76.0%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	71.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	68.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	68.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	68.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	68.7%	77.9%	71.5%	61.6%	71.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	59.5°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	58.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	61.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	58.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	57.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	56.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 56°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗