KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

71%

69%

62%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.8¢Risks 34.88u

HRESNO 30.2¢Risks 15.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.12u · HRES −15.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	20.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	41.3%	—	55.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	77.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	59.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	13.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	14.4%	—	51.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	51.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	18.0%	21.3%	—	50.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	57.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	56.3%	42.3%	26.3%	48.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	57.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	52.9%	40.6%	52.9%	48.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	72.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	55.3%	75.5%	67.7%	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	74.7%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	54.8%	69.2%	51.6%	45.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	62.8%	—	37.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	70.7%	50.0%	74.2%	45.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	19.6%	73.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.9%	51.7%	77.2%	67.8%	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	51.8%	76.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	59.5°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	58.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	71%	61.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	58.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	57.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	56.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 56°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE56
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 56°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗