KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

70%

67%

65%

54%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

HRESNO 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.10u · HRES −35.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	62.3%	71.8%	64.5%	55.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	62.3%	71.8%	63.8%	55.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	62.3%	71.8%	63.8%	55.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	62.3%	71.8%	63.8%	55.5%	67.4%
2026-10-17T07:45:03+00:00	69.8%	71.8%	63.8%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	69.8%	71.8%	63.8%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	69.8%	71.8%	63.8%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	69.8%	71.8%	63.8%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	69.8%	71.8%	63.8%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	69.8%	80.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	69.8%	80.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	69.8%	80.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	65.8%	80.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	65.8%	79.9%	62.6%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	65.8%	81.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	65.8%	81.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	65.8%	81.1%	62.6%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	65.8%	81.1%	65.8%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	65.8%	81.1%	65.8%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	65.8%	81.1%	65.8%	52.4%	66.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	65.8%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	65.8%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	65.8%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	65.8%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	65.8%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	69.8%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	55.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	60.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	60.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	60.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	69.1%	81.1%	60.9%	49.4%	68.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	70.7%	81.1%	60.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	70.7%	81.1%	60.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	70.7%	81.1%	60.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	70.7%	81.1%	60.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	70.7%	81.1%	60.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	70.7%	76.0%	66.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	70.7%	76.0%	66.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	70.7%	76.0%	66.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	70.0%	75.7%	66.9%	54.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	70.0%	75.7%	66.9%	54.1%	64.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	59.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	59.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	58.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	58.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	57.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗