KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

70%

67%

65%

54%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.9¢Risks 64.90u

HRESNO 35.1¢Risks 35.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.10u · HRES −35.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	16.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	35.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	72.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	53.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	10.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	11.0%	—	45.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	44.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	13.9%	16.7%	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	49.3%	35.6%	20.9%	41.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	50.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	45.6%	33.7%	45.6%	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	66.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	47.7%	69.1%	60.6%	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	68.1%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	46.8%	61.8%	43.6%	37.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	54.9%	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	63.1%	41.7%	67.0%	37.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	14.2%	65.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	43.0%	70.1%	59.6%	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	42.9%	69.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	59.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	58.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	59.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	58.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	65%	58.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	57.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗