KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

58%

50%

46%

41%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

ICONNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.00u · ICON −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T15:41:39+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	48.1%	40.4%	52.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	48.1%	40.4%	52.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	48.1%	40.4%	52.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	48.1%	40.4%	52.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	48.1%	40.4%	52.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	54.8%	58.4%	48.1%	40.4%	52.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	48.1%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	48.1%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	48.1%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	48.1%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	56.4%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.9%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.0%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.0%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	57.2%	58.4%	51.0%	39.1%	64.6%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	57.8%	58.4%	51.0%	46.0%	41.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	57.8%	58.4%	51.0%	46.0%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	57.8%	58.4%	51.0%	46.0%	41.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	57.8%	58.4%	51.0%	46.0%	41.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	57.8%	58.4%	51.0%	46.0%	41.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	57.8%	66.9%	50.0%	46.0%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	59.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	58.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗