KSEA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

58%

50%

46%

41%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

ICONNO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.00u · ICON −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	25.4%	—	38.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	61.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	40.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	5.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	6.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	32.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	7.7%	9.6%	—	31.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	37.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	35.6%	23.5%	12.2%	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	36.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	31.7%	21.5%	31.7%	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	51.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	33.0%	54.6%	45.4%	24.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	53.1%	—	6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	31.6%	46.0%	28.8%	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	38.7%	—	17.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	46.7%	26.5%	50.8%	23.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	6.7%	49.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	26.9%	53.5%	42.2%	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	26.4%	51.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	60.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	59.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	58.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	58.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	57.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	56.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗