KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

73%

66%

60%

49%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

HRESNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.70u · HRES −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	64.3%	79.9%	68.8%	53.7%	37.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	64.3%	79.9%	68.8%	53.7%	37.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	64.3%	79.9%	68.8%	53.7%	37.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	65.5%	79.9%	68.8%	53.7%	37.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	65.5%	79.9%	68.8%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:17+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	68.8%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	68.8%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	68.8%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	74.1%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	74.1%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	65.5%	81.8%	74.1%	53.7%	37.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	74.1%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	74.1%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	74.1%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	74.1%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	74.1%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	60.0%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	60.0%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	36.4%	81.8%	60.0%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	66.2%	81.8%	60.0%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	66.2%	81.8%	60.0%	48.8%	73.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	66.2%	81.8%	60.0%	48.8%	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	58.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	60.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	56.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	55.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	55.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	54.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗