KSEA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

73%

66%

60%

49%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

HRESNO 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +34.70u · HRES −34.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	24.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	65.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	85.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	89.0%	—	44.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	84.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	9.0%	73.5%	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	55.5%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	60.4%	81.6%	11.5%	42.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	86.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	42.0%	81.1%	14.8%	40.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	76.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	22.2%	16.9%	27.0%	35.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	77.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	20.6%	69.8%	28.1%	36.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	76.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	58.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	60.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	56.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	55.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	55.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	54.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 55°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗