KSEA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

52%

47%

46%

44%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.2¢Risks 12.04u

ICONNO 51.8¢Risks 12.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.96u · ICON −12.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00	20.2%	58.1%	53.6%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	20.2%	58.1%	53.6%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	20.2%	58.1%	53.6%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	20.2%	58.1%	53.6%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T11:03:01+00:00	20.2%	58.1%	53.6%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00	20.2%	52.1%	47.7%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	20.2%	52.1%	47.7%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	20.2%	52.1%	47.7%	19.3%	32.2%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	47.2%	52.1%	47.7%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:09+00:00	47.2%	52.1%	47.7%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	47.7%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	47.7%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	51.6%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	51.6%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	51.6%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	51.6%	19.3%	31.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	51.6%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	51.6%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	51.6%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	51.6%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	46.5%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	47.7%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	59.3%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	59.3%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	43.1%	50.0%	59.3%	54.9%	35.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:45+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	59.3%	51.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	59.3%	51.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	59.3%	51.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	59.3%	51.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	45.6%	50.0%	59.3%	51.8%	44.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	45.6%	51.9%	47.4%	51.8%	44.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	56.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	56.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	56.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	55.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	55.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261025-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗