KSEA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Seattle, WAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

52%

47%

46%

44%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.2¢Risks 12.04u

ICONNO 51.8¢Risks 12.96u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +12.96u · ICON −12.96u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	6.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	31.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	34.6%	—	42.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	44.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	91.2%	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	94.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	5.8%	81.5%	—	38.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	6.9%	32.3%	5.6%	42.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	36.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	19.4%	17.9%	10.9%	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	88.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	57.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	56.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	56.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	56.2°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	55.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	44%	55.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KSEA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSEA-20261025-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Seattle high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗