KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

84%

48%

35%

35%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.3¢Risks 67.30u

AIFSNO 32.7¢Risks 32.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.70u · AIFS −32.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:09+00:00	33.6%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	79.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	33.6%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	79.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	33.6%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	79.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	33.6%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	79.7%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	33.6%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	79.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:20+00:00	33.6%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	79.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	34.8%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	51.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	34.8%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	51.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	34.8%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	51.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	34.8%	98.0%	28.8%	39.7%	51.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:44+00:00	34.8%	98.0%	28.8%	50.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:03+00:00	34.8%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	34.8%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	34.8%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	51.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	34.3%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	37.4%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	37.4%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	38.9%	99.7%	37.4%	50.0%	52.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	37.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	37.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	37.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	37.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	37.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	36.4%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:40+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:11+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	38.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	33.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	33.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	34.0%	99.7%	33.4%	72.6%	81.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:32+00:00	37.2%	99.7%	33.4%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	37.2%	99.7%	33.4%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	37.2%	99.7%	33.4%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	37.2%	99.7%	33.4%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:48+00:00	37.2%	99.7%	35.0%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:41+00:00	37.2%	99.7%	35.0%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	37.2%	100.0%	35.0%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:39+00:00	37.2%	100.0%	35.0%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	34.6%	100.0%	35.0%	48.2%	83.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	34.6%	100.0%	35.0%	48.2%	83.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	1.0000
ICON	84%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.7006
National Blend	71%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.5084
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2323
WeatherNext 2	35%	64.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1225
AIFS Single	35%	63.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1197

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗