KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

84%

48%

35%

35%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 67.3¢Risks 67.30u

AIFSNO 32.7¢Risks 32.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +32.70u · AIFS −32.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	84.2%	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	99.9%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	55.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	100.0%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	83.8%	99.8%	13.0%	—	43.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	65.7%	78.0%	21.5%	—	35.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	76.1%	94.4%	30.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	54.0%	42.1%	29.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	68.5%	78.1%	45.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	31.1%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	37.9%	86.9%	63.7%	—	37.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	51.8%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	72.6%	87.1%	68.6%	—	48.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	80.4%	75.4%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	78.2%	76.0%	65.2%	—	36.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	88.1%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	80.3%	86.1%	60.2%	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	93.2%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	93.8%	77.8%	53.3%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	93.7%	81.0%	3.8%	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	91.0%	77.6%	28.0%	—	22.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	93.4%	82.5%	19.1%	—	20.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	89.4%	88.2%	40.1%	40.1%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	94.7%	94.4%	20.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	93.0%	95.0%	50.0%	47.3%	19.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	67.5%	98.2%	39.0%	—	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	84.6%	99.6%	37.2%	57.2%	16.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	88.8%	99.9%	22.4%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	86.6%	99.8%	27.6%	33.1%	18.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	90.1%	99.8%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	1.0000
ICON	84%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.7006
National Blend	71%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.5084
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.3036
IFS HRES	48%	65.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.2323
WeatherNext 2	35%	64.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1225
AIFS Single	35%	63.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1197

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗