KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

62%

37%

32%

25%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

WN2NO 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.70u · WN2 −37.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:30+00:00	18.8%	91.9%	17.3%	41.6%	77.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	18.8%	91.9%	16.8%	41.6%	77.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	18.8%	91.9%	16.8%	41.6%	77.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	18.8%	91.9%	16.8%	41.6%	77.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	18.8%	91.9%	16.8%	41.6%	77.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:19+00:00	17.4%	91.9%	16.8%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	17.4%	91.9%	16.8%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	17.4%	91.9%	16.8%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	17.4%	91.9%	16.8%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:27+00:00	17.4%	95.2%	16.3%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	17.4%	95.2%	16.3%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	17.4%	95.2%	16.3%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	17.4%	95.2%	16.3%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	16.5%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	16.5%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:54+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	16.5%	27.8%	57.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	16.5%	28.1%	57.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	57.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	57.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	18.7%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	57.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:45+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	15.9%	28.1%	68.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	15.9%	27.5%	68.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	14.8%	27.2%	68.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	14.8%	27.2%	68.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	16.6%	95.2%	14.8%	27.2%	68.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	20.4%	95.2%	14.8%	27.2%	68.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	20.4%	95.2%	14.8%	27.2%	68.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:42+00:00	19.4%	100.0%	16.4%	31.1%	68.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	19.4%	100.0%	16.4%	31.1%	68.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	19.4%	100.0%	15.0%	31.1%	68.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	19.4%	100.0%	15.0%	31.1%	68.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	19.4%	100.0%	15.0%	31.1%	68.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	19.4%	100.0%	15.0%	31.1%	68.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	15.0%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	15.0%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	15.0%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	15.0%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:45+00:00	20.0%	100.0%	12.4%	24.4%	69.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	15.9%	30.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	15.9%	30.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	15.9%	30.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	82.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	15.1%	30.4%	74.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	15.1%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	20.2%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:36+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	10.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	14.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	14.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	18.8%	100.0%	14.4%	31.3%	74.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:07+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	14.4%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:59+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	14.4%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	14.4%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	14.4%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	14.4%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	20.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:19+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	16.8%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	12.1%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	12.1%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	12.1%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	23.9%	100.0%	12.1%	20.2%	57.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	12.1%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	12.1%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	12.1%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	12.1%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	30.6%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:51+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	16.8%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	24.6%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	24.6%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	24.6%	37.4%	62.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	31.5%	100.0%	24.6%	37.4%	62.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	80.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	1.0000
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3881
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS HRES	37%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1399
AIFS Single	32%	65.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0992
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0605

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗