KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

62%

37%

32%

25%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

WN2NO 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.70u · WN2 −37.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	75.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	99.9%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	100.0%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	73.7%	99.4%	6.9%	—	29.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	51.5%	65.7%	12.4%	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	62.7%	88.6%	18.9%	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	38.2%	27.4%	17.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	52.5%	63.9%	29.3%	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	17.8%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	22.8%	75.2%	46.5%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	34.2%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	55.5%	74.9%	50.9%	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	64.8%	58.5%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	61.5%	58.7%	46.1%	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	75.1%	69.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	63.1%	71.5%	39.8%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	83.1%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	83.8%	58.7%	32.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	83.2%	62.2%	0.9%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	77.6%	57.0%	12.1%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	81.7%	63.0%	7.0%	—	7.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	73.4%	71.3%	19.1%	19.1%	4.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	83.4%	82.6%	6.8%	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	79.0%	83.5%	25.1%	23.0%	6.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	40.3%	91.9%	16.4%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	61.4%	97.5%	14.6%	29.3%	4.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	67.5%	98.9%	6.5%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	62.4%	98.2%	8.3%	11.0%	4.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	67.6%	97.9%	4.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	80.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	1.0000
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3881
NWS forecast	59%	68.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.3505
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
IFS HRES	37%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1399
AIFS Single	32%	65.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0992
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0605

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗