KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

74%

22%

14%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

WN2NO 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:27:47+00:00	14.2%	88.6%	11.0%	27.6%	65.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	11.0%	27.6%	65.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	13.7%	27.6%	65.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	13.7%	27.6%	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	13.7%	27.6%	65.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	13.7%	27.6%	65.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	13.7%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	13.7%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	13.7%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	13.7%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	14.6%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	14.2%	88.4%	12.3%	35.7%	72.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	14.1%	99.9%	7.3%	18.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	14.1%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	14.1%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	14.1%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	59.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.1%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.3%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.3%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.3%	18.0%	74.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.3%	22.5%	74.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	14.5%	99.9%	9.3%	22.5%	74.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9980
ICON	74%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5506
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3114
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
IFS HRES	22%	65.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	14%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0210
WeatherNext 2	9%	64.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗