KSFO / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

74%

22%

14%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

WN2NO 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.40u · WN2 −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	70.8%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	99.5%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	99.9%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	99.9%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	67.7%	99.1%	4.9%	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	44.2%	58.7%	9.0%	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	55.3%	84.5%	14.2%	—	21.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	30.9%	21.2%	12.7%	—	14.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	44.2%	55.8%	22.5%	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	12.8%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	67.8%	37.9%	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	26.4%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	46.3%	67.0%	41.8%	—	23.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	55.7%	49.0%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	51.9%	49.0%	36.6%	—	14.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	66.5%	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	53.1%	62.2%	30.3%	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	75.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	76.2%	47.8%	23.0%	—	7.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	75.1%	51.1%	0.4%	—	6.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	68.0%	45.4%	7.2%	—	5.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	72.7%	51.2%	3.7%	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	62.3%	59.9%	11.8%	11.8%	2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	74.1%	73.1%	3.5%	—	2.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	68.1%	73.9%	15.7%	14.1%	3.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	27.6%	85.3%	9.2%	—	2.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	47.1%	94.5%	7.8%	18.2%	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	53.0%	97.1%	2.9%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	46.8%	95.6%	3.7%	5.2%	1.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	51.6%	94.7%	1.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.2°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.9980
ICON	74%	70.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.5506
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.3114
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1673
IFS HRES	22%	65.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0506
AIFS Single	14%	64.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0210
WeatherNext 2	9%	64.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0086

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261018-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 15:27 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗