KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

43%

33%

16%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

WN2NO 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.60u · WN2 −62.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:49:04+00:00	18.1%	52.5%	14.6%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00	18.1%	52.5%	14.6%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	18.1%	52.5%	14.6%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	18.1%	52.5%	14.6%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	18.1%	52.5%	14.6%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:41+00:00	18.1%	52.5%	12.9%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	18.1%	45.1%	12.9%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	18.1%	45.1%	12.9%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	14.6%	45.1%	12.9%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	14.7%	45.1%	13.0%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:47+00:00	14.7%	45.1%	13.0%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	13.0%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	34.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	14.7%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	16.0%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	16.0%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	16.0%	43.2%	15.2%	32.9%	59.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	71.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.3552
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	43%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1866
IFS HRES	33%	66.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1082
AIFS Single	16%	63.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0256
WeatherNext 2	15%	64.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0231

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗