KSFO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 70°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

43%

33%

16%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 37.4¢Risks 37.40u

WN2NO 62.6¢Risks 62.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +62.60u · WN2 −62.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	42.8%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	11.3%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	2.3%	18.9%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	35.6%	27.5%	1.1%	—	19.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	26.6%	10.6%	4.2%	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	5.6%	14.2%	11.8%	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	47.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	21.8%	28.1%	10.0%	—	10.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	4.5%	10.1%	7.4%	—	10.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.8%	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	18.4%	6.8%	6.8%	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.5%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.8%	13.4%	8.3%	—	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.5%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.0%	5.6%	1.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	7.6%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.1%	4.4%	1.2%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.5%	5.8%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.5%	5.9%	1.0%	0.1%	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.1%	5.7%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.4%	8.1%	0.9%	0.7%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.5%	7.8%	0.8%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	8.0%	0.8%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	10.9%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	8.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	9.2%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	8.3%	0.3%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	9.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	8.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	5.3%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	60%	71.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.3552
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970
IFS Ensemble	43%	68.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1866
IFS HRES	33%	66.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1082
AIFS Single	16%	63.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0256
WeatherNext 2	15%	64.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0231

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 70°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗